As the fourth quarter rapidly approaches, it’s only natural to inquire if PPC experts are fully prepared for Q4, are they strategizing differently for Q4 in 2023? Do their budgeting tactics vary across different platforms? What are their personal expectations for how Q4 will unfold this year? These were some of the questions that host Julie F Bacchini sought to address during this week’s PPCChat discussion.
Q1: Do you feel like you’re ready for Q4? If so, why do you feel ready and if not, why not?
No less ready than this time last year. Some brands have Q4 planned and others are still in planning mode. @duanebrown
yes, but I can cheat a little on this one. I only have a couple of retail clients, the rest are all about to launch flu and university student support. @JuliaVyse
I am not in ecomm, so I observe mostly in Q4! @NeptuneMoon
Both yes and no. Yes because we’ve done all the things and set up accounts for success.No because lately, I feel like every time I’ve gotten comfy, I get burned so I refuse to enter that state .@navahf
Wash your hands and mask up folks. It’s courteous and flus are starting up! also, I have an absolutely gorgeous burger for you to try. @JuliaVyse
Mixed. That thing we’re starting in 2024 and the time to hit the 2023 sales targets are fast decreasing. @jameshume
@navahf the last few years have been rough. prepare for the unexpected. @JuliaVyse
It’s a mixed bag, and the only reason for a “no” answer is client preparedness. These days, media planning for digital efforts is a matter of a few days or a week, very accomplishable. It’s going to be a crowded marketplace, like always, so that’s a constant, not a variable any longer. When that’s complicated by inventory constraints, client-side decisions over deals, message sequencing, creative development etc., the preparing extends. @teabeeshell
I was born ready! Or, ready as we can be! @MenachemAni
I do, this is something I enjoy but I always especially as the Google news comes out wonder if all sales would be there regardless of the ad copy and optimizations on back end. @runnerkik
My ecomm client isn’t as reliant on Q4 fortunately. I think this year will be tough. Consumers have a finite budget and I think this year they’ll be a little tighter with that budget. @robert_brady
@robert_brady Economic situation is not great right now, so will be interesting to see how Q4 goes. Amazon Prime Days coming up in about 2 weeks should be a good early indicator. @NeptuneMoon
Feels like many are in a boat waiting on clients to help get the final pieces in order. @duanebrown
Whilst I feel like I’m prepared in terms of my clients and getting things in place e.g. requirements for Assets etc (Not that they will get them in on time, but I know what they are thinking so I can be more flex/prepared?), what I don’t feel I’m ready for is any more Google changes, and I have a feeling something else is to come before Peak just not sure what it will be lol. @Meriem
@NeptuneMoon you are welcome to watch my strategically timed drinks too. @runnerkik
Also my demand gen request wasn’t approved yet. @runnerkik
@duanebrown we also use any over or under spend during holidays/cyber. @runnerkik
Got to use or lose that money. @duanebrown
A heads up if you didn’t see the news yesterday too – ads in your Google campaigns may start appearing on Twitter/X. You can exclude these placements from all campaign types. Ginny recommends at the account level. But you can exclude twitter.com, x.com and Twitter/X as an app if you don’t want ads showing there. @NeptuneMoon
Here is a post on Ad Age on G Ads on Twitter:https://adage.com/article/digital-marketing-ad-tech-news/x-turns-google-programmatic-ads-timeline/2515981 @NeptuneMoon
Elon getting desperate if he’s lumping his “premium” placements into the GDN. @robert_brady
Performance Max on Twitter just what we all feel comfortable with, right around election season. @runnerkik
Q2: Has your planning for Q4 2023 been different from past Q4s? If so, how and if not, why not?
Oh man, we had a very strange front half, so this year there’s a lot of ‘get it live now’ happening. It hasn’t been substantially different in terms of overall planning, but the volume is different than we’re used to. @JuliaVyse
Planning has not been different for us, other than maybe budgets might shift depending on how the next 60 days go. @duanebrown
Has this varied by industry for you @JuliaVyse? @NeptuneMoon
Has the platform mix changed for you this year @duanebrown? @NeptuneMoon
Doing more Amazon this year. Growing business for us. @duanebrown
@NeptuneMoon yes it has! Gov is stable as a table, lots of illness prevention, support local farmers, and winding down wildfires just like usual. and my toy client is doing their thing. But the burgers and the electricity/conservation folks are doing what they often do, but in higher volume and for different campaign lengths. @JuliaVyse
The only yes part is that every year we make a strong effort to incorporate learning from the year prior. @runnerkik
But the planning process for us is similar for all “tentpoles” @runnerkik
@duanebrown Amazon just made a huge investment in an AI company too https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/amazon-steps-up-ai-race-with-up-4-billion-deal-invest-anthropic-2023-09-25/ @NeptuneMoon
The “time to maturity” factor for PMax and Shopping campaigns makes things fundamentally different. Gone are the days of overnight product launches. I’m encouraging a 10-14 day “head start” on campaigns, tacking on the deal (promo) for a given flight, and landing page modifications only, no URL revisions. @teabeeshell
@teabeeshell Learning periods in search advertising is still a newer thing that brands are not used to. Let’s not forget you can’t see real-time analytics in GA4 either…@NeptuneMoon
Things have changed this year, I started talking Christmas in June H2 budgets are already confirmed and mostly convos are around requirements more than what’s your discount. e.g. this worked last year, this did not, we can do this etc Assets – imagery, feed optimisation, bundles GTINs, got an audience review planned to ensure we’re ready etc I have a template check sheet depending on the client on my working sheets for each, I got bored one day when I was meant to be auditing and did them instead. PLEASE NOTE just because I’ve done this doesn’t mean it’s going to go to plan e.g. I’ll receive the assets the night before etc. @Meriem
@NeptuneMoon Amazon was not going to be left behind. They have a nice $60 billion ad business but want to be $100 billion or $220 billion like Meta and Google, respectively. @duanebrown
Biggest impact was GA4 – not all clients migrated in time so we’re dealing with that. Other than that, it’s mostly same ol same ol. @navahf
@navahf Still shocked how many never made the change over to GA4 in a timely manner. @duanebrown
I feel like we’re planning for Q4 less this year – it just sorta popped out of nowhere (not in a bad way, but the year has flown by) @revaminkoff
@duanebrown @navahf I mean, how could they have known there was a deadline looming. @NeptuneMoon
It was painful having the same conversations for months. @navahf
Google was not fucking around with telling people this was coming. I did see some people who kept saying they would change the date at the last minute. Then that did not happen. @duanebrown
True, but I wish more of the GA4 support was there/ready. Still having issues with GA4 and GA4 support. @revaminkoff
Support for GA4? @revaminkoff Hilarious. And awful, difficult, ridiculous. @NeptuneMoon
All of the above lol. @revaminkoff
Q3: Have you increased, decreased or stayed at the same budget level for Q4 2023 versus 2022? Does this differ by platform? And what went into the budgetary decisions this year?
Increased across the board overall. And yes it differs somewhat by platform, but the overall spend is higher. @JuliaVyse
A mixed bag for some. Some increases and staying the same. Some decreases for brands who have debt to pay off. @duanebrown
For my primary client, we have a flat budget and will be flat again in 2024. Also, last year while flat there was incremental this year that offer hasn’t happened. I see this as a challenge vs an issue. 2022s budget increase proved hard in terms of scale this year was better. @runnerkik
Let’s hope Google doesn’t need to “shake the cushions” here in Q4 to meet their numbers. @NeptuneMoon
Budgets are roughly the same, but that actually has me suspicious given rises in average cpc costs. @navahf
Overall spend is higher, but we’ve pulled away from Twitter in most situations. @AllyQuilty_MKTG
Not to nitpick, but I think “budget” is too shallow a decision point in 2023. Brands with a graduated strategy are more concerned with metrics like:
- New customer acquisition costs
- Contribution margin
- 60d LTV after the holidays
- Lead efficiency
Merely looking at budget YOY is a recipe for the same mistakes. (Spoiler alert: It will not go as far.) @teabeeshell
@navahf Flat budgets would be concerning to me because it seems likely brands will have to work harder to get holiday dollars sent their way this year. So that means more competition, longer campaigns, higher CPCs, etc. All of which are not good for fixed, flat budgets. @NeptuneMoon
And I’ll bet Amazon doesn’t have a flat budget then again Google can just swap places in auctions.@runnerkik
The swapping places thing for the record feels more like letting a company win just enough to spend more etc @runnerkik
RE: Platform distribution, the focus should be less tied to Meta vs. Google vs. TikTok vs. other, and more leaned into:
A) Where can I secure net new people into the brand ecosystem most efficiently?
B) How can I extract the most value from current customers without giving away margin. For those in lead gen, this may not be the optimal time to invest heavily, unless the vertical relies on this specific 3mo time frame (Oct-Dec). You’re fighting against ecomm businesses for a finite amount of inventory. @teabeeshell
Q4: Are you planning on testing anything new for Q4 2023? If so, on what platform(s) and what went into your decision to try these new things?
Some Google betas are in the process of being tested. @duanebrown
For Google, specifically, I’m eager to lead with a Demand Gen-first approach, phasing into tCPA-focused PMax and tROAS Shopping complements, come November. For PMax, forever more having parallel campaigns:
- Brand Exclusion + bid on only new customers
- Brand Allowed + bid on any customers
My hypothesis is that if we invest in demand generation earlier, the recapture will be smoother, esp. when paired with a strategic offer. @teabeeshell
@duanebrown – Which do you have your eyes on? @teabeeshell
You know, this, that and the other. Usually, things related to shopping ads and or YouTube. @duanebrown
Q4 is going to be interesting because a) my company’s Q4 is Nov-Jan, and b) for the last month of Q3 (Oct), we’re testing out running 2x total paid marketing budget as a test. Google will be getting the majority of that increase, but it likely will not be a permanent change and so I’ll need to ensure comparisons are done with the right context. @kytaylor88
Q5: How do you personally feel Q4 will go this year? Do you see anything out in the real world that has you leaning in one direction or another?
I posted this on LinkedIn. Unless you sell a need or something people badly want, your Q4 won’t be as good this year with money being tight. @duanebrown
I think Amazon will continue to make shopping more convoluted. We’ll see a bigger “slip” from TOF/MOF efforts into final purchases on Amazon. Savvy marketers limit the SKUs they offer on Amazon, reserve Tier 1 inventory for their DotComs. @teabeeshell
I agree with you @duanebrown this is going to be a difficult holiday season for a lot of people and brands. Money is very tight for many. @NeptuneMoon
We have one client do well but not better than last year and it is their peak season. @duanebrown
Let’s also not forget that many have been forced to return to the office, so money they had in their pockets last year are also being eaten up by commuting costs, more eating out and potentially higher insurance premiums. That is all $$ that can no longer be in discretionary bucket. @NeptuneMoon
Q6: Does your team do anything special/different for Q5? Those are the days between Christmas and New Years Day.
My favourite time of year. Clients are off, people have money to spend and we can push spend while everyone else pulls back. @duanebrown
We mostly switch over to Lunar New Year prep at that time. @JuliaVyse
Two core strategies:
- Offload remnant inventory – Get it off the books, ideally while still preserving SOME margin
- Early promote a new product launch/promo – Sign up now to be the first to hear about X, no new purchase required @teabeeshell
Really really really watch pacing closely. @revaminkoff
Q7: Any Q4 thoughts, feelings or questions you have that we didn’t cover?
Just…lots. it’s a lot right now. there’s a reason international mental health awareness is next week! @JuliaVyse
It has been another long year. @NeptuneMoon
Curious for what other brands are doing to run “counter-culturally.” Things like (actual) Giving Tuesday or skipping BFCM for a later deal, or something else that cuts through the clutter out there. @teabeeshell
It will be interesting to see @teabeeshell because last year felt like offers came in EARLY and the BFCM ones were a whole lot of meh. @NeptuneMoon
PPCChat Participants
- Duane Brown @duanebrown
- Julia Vyse @JuliaVyse
- Julie F Bacchini @NeptuneMoon
- Navah Hopkins @navahf
- James Hume @jameshume
- Travis @teabeeshell
- Menachem Ani @MenachemAni
- Sarah Stemen @runnerkik
- Robert Brady @robert_brady
- Meriem @Meriem
- Reva Minkoff @revaminkoff
- Ally Quilty @AllyQuilty_MKTG
- Kyle Taylor @kytaylor88
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