PPCChat | Advertising This Fall | 3rd September 2024

This week’s PPCChat session was focused on four points: (1) the heated political season in the US, (2) the consolidation of holiday seasons, (3) strained economic conditions around the world and (4) planning for holiday 2024. Here is the screencap of the discussion hosted by Julie F Bacchini.

Q1: This question is US centric, but are you taking into consideration political advertising in the US over the next 6 weeks and how it might impact your PPC campaigns? What, if anything, are you doing because of this?

yes. it skews the auction in ways you wouldn’t immediately realize as campaigns go big and broad for the last 6 weeks. Plus, we have an election happening here, so there are media blackout rules to consider. @JuliaVyse

Eric Seufert tweeted this and PPC Greg retweeted it and the figures are STAGGERING. https://x.com/eric_seufert/status/1830303651568459982 @NeptuneMoon

Yes! Here are a few experiments folks are welcome to borrow as you see fit: @navahhopkins

1. Subdivide your audience/placements by political leaning (best guess) and adjust the creative as you see fit. I’ve done really well segmenting right-wing and left-wing news outlets as targets in their campaigns and exclusions in the other.
2. I’m super vigilant around paid social and the comments on content. Some brands are willing to allow full freedom of content, but others are a tad more sensitive.
3. Microsoft is awesome right now because not a lot of political spend is happening there so it’s easier to bypass the cpc spikes

My thinking is if you are advertising on social platforms or YouTube keep a close eye on your campaigns. @NeptuneMoon

CTV is honestly going to be the most impacted but I agree @NeptuneMoon: PMax , Demand gen, and Youtube will be impacted. @navahhopkins

@navahhopkins Good point about Microsoft. @AmandaWitucki 

Yes on CTV. Also if you are running video ads on Amazon – I am seeing political ads there too. @NeptuneMoon

And get ready for CTV/Linear TV to cost a FORTUNE. @JuliaVyse

Netflix rolled out their new pricing just in time to make all the money. and they updated their content so we all have to seriously think abut cancelling. @navahhopkins

Definitely Demand Gen because it sends nearly all its traffic to YouTube (even if you do not have video assets, I might add…) @NeptuneMoon

That said – Netflix loses to Amazon on almost every metric so I think Amazon advertisers are the ones who need to pay the most attention. especially given the amount of data Amazon has on users. WTB @coryhenke to weigh in on ad spend projections for video. @navahhopkins

Say what you will, Amazon definitely learned from Netflix’s errors. it’s a good ad product. @JuliaVyse

I have been meaning to reach out to Cory anyway, so let me do that and see if I can get his takes and maybe do a post? @NeptuneMoon

I went from indifferent about Amazon to just as much of a “fangirl” about Amazon as I am about Microsoft. however, I think that’s because I get to see how they’re building and why. what do you think @JuliaVyse – are your brands feeling safe investing on CTV? @navahhopkins

I would think that Amazon’s ad unit is more nimble at this juncture than Google’s too. They can zig where Google has long zagged and find traction. @NeptuneMoon

Also, I love how this instantly shifted to a video conversation (despite how many cling to search text) – makes me wonder if search text ads will be mostly neutral. @navahhopkins

@navahhopkins absolutely! We only do omni, and in Canada, TV is still a very strong reach builder. So we do a lot of TotalTV, meaning linear, CTV, and of course conquesting. We had a rough experience with Netflix, an EXPENSIVE experience with Disney, tho successful i’ll say, and a great experience with Amazon.@JuliaVyse

I think search ads still have the high intent factor, so they are more immune to CPC spikes relative to a temporary thing like political spending for the most part. Whereas the other non-search ad types are not/fair game for big political spends. @NeptuneMoon

Disney being expensive is hilarious to me. Amazon understands the balance of user data and inventory – Disney and Netflix are still struggling despite having longer to figure it out. @navahhopkins

Amazon’s video is also a very small piece of their pie. @NeptuneMoon

@NeptuneMoon  agree. I think the ad copy and tone itself is less on my mind than the auction volatility with so much money flowing all of a sudden. @JuliaVyse

They don’t want it to be though – anyone sleeping on Amazon video is going to be very sad next year. @navahhopkins

If you’re running ads anywhere that allows political advertising in a battleground state, you’d better buckle up (or get out of there) @robert_brady

Q2: Not sure if this is US-centric or not, but…Have you noticed that holiday “seasons” are being started earlier and earlier? For example, I have been getting Halloween ads since at least mid-July and last year I was getting Black Friday sale emails in September. Is this impacting your PPC strategy in any way?

Yes – it’s all greed with a seed of the weather no longer follows the agreed-upon calendar. @navahhopkins

I tweeted yesterday about the craft supplies chain Michaels sending out an email to get your Halloween tree ready. WTF is that nonsense? And they have been emailing me daily about Halloween decor since July. I am so curious if regular consumers are as put off by it as we might be, since we think about it both as consumers but also as advertising strategists and managers. @NeptuneMoon

I think we should just stop worrying about conventional holidays. but capitalism demands dedicated times we show our love through money. @navahhopkins

I’ve noticed that the holidays start earlier. The Christmas stuff goes on sale the day the Halloween stuff comes down, but I don’t do any retail or shopping ads so it makes no real difference to me. @Pete_Bowen

All the seasons are being extended by retailers. Back to School was in full swing in mid-July here. Schools to do start until at the earliest the last week of August. I had a hard time finding summer seasonal items I needed when I needed them and was planning to purchase right then. @NeptuneMoon

I think the recession style behaviour we’re seeing is a part of it. This year is less scarcity/exclusivity with a dam burst moment, and more get on top of it now, distract yourself, look forward, get the best idea. @JuliaVyse

So it’s interesting – “Halloween” content is just as applicable to cosplayers/convention-goers. Christmas content is almost always applicable to some folks year-round. “Back to school” is dependent on whether you’re talking about university or k-12. I just don’t know that it makes sense to create sales around holidays so much as it makes sense to create CRO-driven offers. @navahhopkins

I agree to a point on that @navahhopkins  but decor is not for cosplayers and that is a very large part of Halloween stuff in particular. @NeptuneMoon

@NeptuneMoon there are some very serious cosplayers that absolutely need those decorations. same with theater productions @navahhopkins

I do think that when cost is a factor, which it is in our current economic climate, then creating an opportunity to get something early but save $$ can be a winning strategy. @NeptuneMoon

Outside of the advertising world, the economy is rough right now. We’re holding things together with a ‘little treat’ here and there because staples and bills are so much of the standard paycheck. So extend the reason for a little treat just to keep stuff going. @JuliaVyse

I’m going to post the next question cause it is about economic conditions…@NeptuneMoon

Yes, there is less scarcity this year, but I don’t think the ‘juice is worth the squeeze’ for most retailers. Consumers will shop at some point per usual, but I don’t think that many more are swayed to make additional purchases over the stretch of the ‘season’ to earn the retailers’ revenue bump. @AmandaWitucki 

My point is I think we have become desensitized to holidays so creating focal point sales isn’t nearly as important as clever marketing data sales. @navahhopkins

@AmandaWitucki   from a consumables standpoint, then it becomes a stock issue. get this stuff out of the store so the next delivery can come in. At least that’s how it is for my alcohol retailer. @JuliaVyse

@AmandaWitucki   I also think that retailers in some ways want to get the sales in now/early and get that $$ instead of it going somewhere else too. @NeptuneMoon

Yes, makes total sense @JuliaVyse, especially for new/limited-time items (I also have a beverage client so it’s all about pre-orders for the celebrity liquors right now!). @AmandaWitucki 

Good point @NeptuneMoon — most only have so much in the wallet so once it’s gone, it’s gone. @AmandaWitucki

The comments are spot on. Advertisers are trying to get those $$$ as soon as possible and it pushes everything earlier. The pendulum will eventually swing back, but right now things start ridiculously early for Halloween and Christmas particularly. @robert_brady

Q3: With economic conditions being tight around the world, are you making adjustments to your current and/or  2024 holiday strategy? If so, how are things different this year in your accounts? And if not, why not?

We decided to do the big study share to help folks get ready for the Holiday season. @navahhopkins

Local services not that impacted yet. E-commerce is – focusing more on levers outside ad accounts like CRO, Email, Affiliate, etc for growth. @alimehdimukadam

Rather than limiting the scope to holiday season – we thought it would be helpful to share trends and benchmarks overall – my two cents is that a lot of the volatility comes from not knowing what’s going on and having some transparency should help level set. @navahhopkins

Yes. Here in Canada, things are pretty dire. My restaurant client is spending Q4 looking squarely at price promos and combo orders, less focus on different menu options, beverages, and contests. My retail clients are focused on being seen as ‘the’ place. So shop here rather than shop around, make sure you shop here first if you’re looking, and connect online for great deals. Not a lot of feelings/persuasion messages, more on pragmatic behaviours. @JuliaVyse

I’m interested if what we consider luxury purchases will shift. @navahhopkins

@navahhopkins I’m definitely seeing smaller audiences for my lux travel client. the demand is there, but ppl are being choosier.@JuliaVyse

Luxury is often the canary in the coal mine for overall purchasing don’t you think? And it has had a bump in the past couple of years as people have treated themselves to things after the first couple of COVID years that were bleak. @NeptuneMoon

Aspirational luxury purchases will. For HNIs, not so much. @alimehdimukadam

The holiday season is when a lot of consumers save their big luxury purchases for (or at least historically they have) so I’ll be interested to see if that stays true or if as @alimehdimukadam pointed out, it’s the aspirational purchases and whether people are prepared to pay for things 1+ year out. @navahhopkins

@navahhopkins A post-holiday study on that would be cool. @NeptuneMoon

Do you care if it’s a mix of lead gen and ecommerce or would you only be interested in ecommerce data? @navahhopkins

I would think e-commerce on that one. Overall costs for both lead gen and e-commerce from Sept through Dec would also be very interesting, particularly with a YOY component. @NeptuneMoon

We’ll see what we can do. I know one of our goals for the next round of studies is to look at Microsoft in depth – I think it’s fascinating how different brands perform on different networks. which essentially all comes down to how well did you translate your creative/messaging @navahhopkins

Re: people paying for things 1+ years out… Is anyone aware of recent articles/studies on how Affirm, Klarna, etc have done this past year vs. covid years? @AmandaWitucki 

That is a great question @AmandaWitucki  – I will see if I can find anything on that. @NeptuneMoon

Q4: Are you sensing any trends in advertising as we head into fall and then holiday 2024 seasons?

I saw a post that Pinterest has surpassed X for some advertising this morning. Let me see if I can find it…https://digiday.com/marketing/digiday-research-pinterest-surpasses-x-when-it-comes-to-brands-usage-of-ugc-focused-social-platforms/ @NeptuneMoon

This is a spoiler for the ad study but I wouldn’t sleep on Demand gen. visual content is where the ad platforms are investing and those who lean into that content will do better. I fully agree on Pinterest btw. @navahhopkins

And video action campaigns are being rolled into Demand Gen too. @NeptuneMoon

Not exactly a trend, but invest more in PMax. I will hold your hand and scream into the void with you as the usual and new problems come up with it. But it’s here and it’s not to be ignored. @JuliaVyse

Demand Gen is going to be the gateway campaign type to soften up the eventuality of PMax being the only campaign type, IMO. @NeptuneMoon

+1 for Pmax @navahhopkins

And as I mentioned on Glenn’s show, and continue to say: don’t discount local partnerships. The owner of the billboard near you is a potential partner and also a small business. Your local radio station reaches people when the internet cuts out. Make relationships with local media businesses in addition to throwing dollars into the performance world. @JuliaVyse

I don’t know that Google will fully retire the other campaign types, but I do think it’s fascinating how many people ONLY run PMax @navahhopkins

I think they will within 2 years. @NeptuneMoon

Humans are lazy by nature and Pmax makes it easy to be “fine” while being lazy but exceptional results are still gated behind effort. whether doing pmax, demand gen, or stand-alone campaigns @navahhopkins

Tell that to the finance bro asking me about hyper-targeting a month ago. sir, it’s 2024, I know this is new to you, but we’ve moved on. @JuliaVyse

That’s so wild to hear @navahhopkins…at least in the current space. Would you say a lot of them are managed by “younger” PPCers (I think we said a few weeks back, those who learned pre-2010 vs. those who learned pre-2020)? @AmandaWitucki 

It is more about what Google wants and needs though. And with PMax only they can make stronger arguments about “protecting privacy” and that is important. But the outcome of their trial that starts next week, specifically on adtech, will have a huge impact too. @NeptuneMoon

Partnerships as a whole is going to increase a lot more and will be a dedicated channel. Includes Affiliates. @alimehdimukadam

So everything old is new again @alimehdimukadam? I hear there is this tech where you can send a piece of paper to targeted lists you can purchase…@NeptuneMoon

@AmandaWitucki not sure on the age but that’s one of the insights I found fascinating in our PMax study pull. @navahhopkins

@NeptuneMoon Yes, everything old is new again…..will come with new buzzwords. @alimehdimukadam

Well, that is good news for me, cause I am also old! Started in marketing before the internet even. @NeptuneMoon

Q5: What are your biggest concerns from now until the end of 2024 with regard to PPC?

Ethics. @navahhopkins

@navahhopkins Ooohh good one. @NeptuneMoon

That’s the long and short of it – it feels like we’re no longer bound by a sense of decency and knowing what’s real and not real is going to make Q4 a wild ride. @navahhopkins

Q4 earnings tbh. Weird announcements happen when shareholders get antsy. @JuliaVyse

The impact of the US election and whatever might ensue after election day here. @NeptuneMoon

I fear a recession more than anything. Indicators are already out there, not sure when it might play out, maybe post-election? @alimehdimukadam

@alimehdimukadam Recession is a legit concern. @NeptuneMoon

Historically, whenever Fed announces the first rate cut, a recession has followed in the next 12-18 months. Obviously, no one can time it. And Fed’s gonna announce it in September @alimehdimukadam

There is a whole lot of “don’t rock the boat” happening here in the US right now which is holding things steady for now. @NeptuneMoon

That and being as careful as one can about not mixing politics and business. @navahhopkins

Agree with you, Julie. For the U.S. it’s all about how the politics go. Ad dollars. Ethics! What messages are pounded in to try to convince voters — not only to pick a candidate — but how that verbiage/”feeling” will affect consumers’ purchase behavior, and beliefs about our society/economy in general (not to mention the various messages for who in the household has the purchasing power, whether that’s a 60yo or the 20-somethings just starting out). So much more to unpack in all of that, though…!@AmandaWitucki 

PPCChat Participants

• Julia Vyse @JuliaVyse
• Julie F Bacchini @NeptuneMoon
• Navah Hopkins @navahhopkins
• Amanda Witucki @AmandaWitucki 
• Robert Brady @robert_brady
• Peter Bowen @Pete_Bowen
• Ali Mehdi Mukadam @alimehdimukadam

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